Greek clubs in Europe 2024/25

By Stephen Kountourou

European football is back and with a brand new format, the League Phase. The move away from the group stages, after over three decades from 1991 to 2024, has excited some fans as a welcome change. More games, more teams and more action-packed fixtures between the big boys of the European stage. What's not to love? 

Others may roll their eyes at the new format, as it can be seen as a prelude to the much-maligned European Super League, with more fixtures meaning less rest for players. This less competitive format almost guarantees the bigger clubs qualify for the Round of 16 over smaller teams and UEFA perhaps fixing a system that wasn’t broken, to begin with. 

Whatever your opinion, it is time for continental football on the European stage again for Greek clubs, with three competing in the UEFA Europa League and UEFA Conference League, respectively. But how did Olympiakos, PAOK, and Panathinaikos qualify, and who will they face?

Olympiakos

After clinching the Conference League title last season against Italian side Fiorentina at the Agia Sophia Stadium in Athens, Olympiakos automatically qualified for the Europa League League phase. This meant there were no qualifiers for a Greek club for the first time since 2015/16 when Thrylos themselves automatically qualified for the Champions League group stages. 

Jose Luis Mendilibar’s men drew the following teams:

Toughest test: Olympique Lyonnais

While they might not be the titans of French football that they once were in the early 2000s, Lyon away on Matchday One could still prove to be the toughest match-up Olympiakos will face in their League Phase campaign. 

OL boast several ex-Premier League stars that could pose a danger to Thrylos, including Wilfried Zaha, Saïd Benrahma and Alexandre Lacazette and supporters at the Parc Olympique Lyonnais will make for a hostile environment on Lyon's return to Europe after two seasons away. 

Required points to qualify and prediction

According to Football Meets Data, Olympiakos are projected to reach the Europa League playoffs in 13th place. The likeliest threshold to make it into the top 24 as it stands is predicted to be at least nine points, which throughout their eight matches is more than doable for the Conference League holders. 

I agree with this assessment, albeit if their post international break form improves, that Olympiakos can finish in the playoff places.

PAOK

By lifting the Greek Super League title at the end of the 2023/24 season, PAOK gained entry into the Champions League second qualifying round. Victory over Bosnian side Borac Banja Luka was followed by exiting the 3rd qualifying round, after a narrow defeat over two legs to Swedish side Malmo 4-3 on aggregate after extra time. 

A Europa League playoff tie with Shamrock Rovers was almost a formality, as PAOK thumbed the Irish side 6-0 on aggregate to reach the League Phase.

The Greek champions drew the following team:

Toughest test: Manchester United

One of the biggest and best-supported clubs in the world, Manchester United has fallen adrift of its former glories over the last decade or so. Being in the Europa League this season they still boast the talents of summer signings Noussair Mazraoui, Matthijs de Ligt, Manuel Ugarte and Joshua Zirkzee. 

Up-and-coming talents like Kobbie Mainoo, Alejandro Garnacho, and talismanic captain Bruno Fernandes make Erik Ten Haag’s men one of the favourites to go all the way and win the whole thing. 

PAOK won’t have to face the Red Devils at Old Trafford until Matchday Four. With United maybe concentrating on finishing in the top four of the Premier League, the Greek champions could cause an unlikely upset away from home. 

Required points to qualify and prediction

Much like with Olympiakos, PAOK are projected by Football Meets Data to qualify for the playoffs by finishing in 15th place. Asprómavri has, in recent times, improved massively from the team that struggled to qualify for major tournaments to going deep into the Conference League on two occasions. 

Now the Greek champions must take the next step and do the same in the Europa League. Despite a tough draw overall, I predict that PAOK should be able to do enough points to get a playoff place.

Panathinaikos 

The Prasini, after winning the Greek Cup over Aris, began for the Europa League second qualifying round. Diego Alonso’s men, after comfortably knocking out Botev Plovdiv 6-1 on aggregate drew Dutch giants Ajax in the 3rd qualifying round. 

After a narrow 0-1 defeat in OAKA, PAO drew level on aggregate in Amsterdam thanks to an 89th-minute strike from big summer signing Tete. Penalties followed, but in a cruel twist of fate, it was Trifýlli, in a whopping 13-12 shootout would drop to the Conference League. 

They drew French side Lens in the playoffs and with the first leg ending in a 2-1 defeat away, PAO were on the brink of exiting Europe altogether. In OAKA however, a 2-0 win turned the tie on its head and Panathinaikos reached the Conference League in dramatic fashion.

PAO drew the following teams:

Toughest test: Chelsea

A running trend with the toughest opponents for each Greek club and the same can certainly be said for Chelsea. Ever since the takeover of Todd Boley and Clearlake Capital, Chelsea has become a revolving door for players, managers and technical staff, while spending over £1 billion in two seasons, finishing 12th in 2022/23. 

The Blues were able to scrape a European spot last season but missed out on the Europa League due to Manchester United winning the FA Cup. Enzo Maresca still boasts talent in his team that makes them the favourites for the Conference League, although most notably England international Cole Palmer was not included in their European squad. 

So with a clear priority on the league until they reach the knockout stages, Panathinaikos could try to take advantage of their Premier League opponent's lack of concertation in this competition for the time being.

Required points to qualify and prediction 

For Panathinaikos, Football Meets Data has predicted that they will not only finish in the top eight in the League Phase in 4th place in the automatic places for the Round of 16 but they have tipped the Prasini as the 8th favourites to win the Conference League this season. 

Due to the difference in UEFA’s third competition only having six matches in the League phase rather than eight games in the Champions League and Europa League, the points threshold to qualify directly for the knockout stages is slightly different. 

An average of 12 points is predicted to reach the top eight with seven points being the average to finish in the top 24. There is a distinctly lower level of quality in the opponents that Panathinaikos will be facing, excluding Chelsea which is why I also predict that while not as comfortably as 4th place, Diego Alonso will guide his team to an automatic place in the Round of 16.

(Image credit to @footballmeetsdata)

@SteveKountourou

Hellas Football