Olympiakos vs Neftchi Baku: Second Qualifying Round 1st Leg Preview

Olympiakos vs Neftchi Baku: 

Second Qualifying Round 1st Leg Preview

By Stephen Kountourou 

After a month of international football, it’s no rest for the wicked as the European football season for some clubs is already underway. Teams who have had their pre-season this early on and are now competing to qualify for major continental competitions and reach the group stages of their respective tournaments. 

Greek champions Olympiakos is one such side that has a much earlier start to their campaign than most, as they enter the second qualifying round of the Champions League and draw Azerbaijani champions Neftchi Baku. While Thrylos are the favourites for this tie, nothing in football is guaranteed as both sides set up to face one another in Piraeus for the first leg. 

So this week I will be doing my first preview of the season, taking a brief look back at how Erythrolefki qualified for the Champions League second qualifiers, who their opponents are and how they reached the same stage. I will also do a lineup and scoreline prediction for the first leg that will undoubtedly be massively incorrect on my part.  

How Both Teams Fared Domestically to Qualify for Europe

 

Olympiakos

In reality, I have covered Olympiakos 2020/21 campaign extensively, but just for fun, I’ll do a brief overview anyway, just in case people forgot how it went. Thrylos were more or less unchallenged throughout the vast majority of their domestic campaign. 

After going top of the table on matchday 8, the defending champions never looked back and stayed there for the rest of the regular season. Olympiakos remained undefeated and in cruise control until they were stopped in their tracks and suffered their first loss of the season by the hands of bitter rivals Panathinaikos in Leoforos 2-1. Despite this Thrylos picked themselves up and finished the regular season strong, topping the table with 67 points with a 16 point gap on 2nd placed Aris.

At the start of the playoffs, three wins were all the champions needed to defend their title and they certainly delivered. Wins against Aris, AEK 1-5 away and a revenge match against Panathinaikos where Olympiakos secured a 3-1 win and mathematically secured title number 46. 

Even after suffering another defeat, this time to PAOK 2-0 in the very next match, Olympiakos would win four of their final six matches and finish with 90 points, 26 ahead of PAOK who finished 2nd. Thrylos by winning the Greek Superleague title qualified for the Champions League qualifiers and thanks to other circumstances going their way they were placed in the second round rather than the first.

Neftchi Baku

The side from Baku had a very successful league campaign during the 2020/21 Azerbaijan Premier League season. After 28 games Neftchi Baku won their 9th league title and ended a 7 year win streak of league rivals Qarabag FK by a mere two points. With this title victory, Neftchi reached the Champions League qualifiers for the first time since the 2013/14 season after an 8 year hiatus. The Azerbaijani champions started their European campaign in the first qualifying round where they faced Georgian champions Dinamo Tbilisi. Over two legs Neftchi defeated their opponents 2-1 both home and away to go through 4-2 on aggregate where Olympiakos lay in wait.  

First Time for Everything 

This certainly makes for an interesting clash as it is the first time both clubs have faced one another, with both teams having never faced another side from either country. The only two comparisons we have of Greek sides facing off against Azerbaijani opponents are in the Europa League. 

First when Panathinaikos were knocked out of the 2015/16 Europa League playoffs by Gabala FK after the prasini went out 2-2 on aggregate and away goals. This was also the first ever encounter between two sides from both countries. The second is the very next season during the 2016/17 Europa League group stages when PAOK were in group J containing Qarabag. The Thessaloniki, despite qualifying for the Round of 32 in second place, would sustain both their losses in the group to the Azerbaijani side home and away. 

This means that teams from Azerbaijan are actually undefeated against Greek opposition with 2 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses and a combined goal tally of 2 goals scored 5 conceded after 4 games played. 

Injuries and Suspensions for Thrylos

The injuries for Olympiakos at the time of writing are already well known. Kostas Fortounis will be out for a number of months after sustaining another ACL injury early on in pre-season. New signing and Brazilian striker Tiquinho Soares is also out after falling badly on his arm and after surgery is expected to be out for a couple of months. It must be said however that Tiquniho would have been suspended for both legs anyway as he has a three match ban in European competition that he is yet to serve.

As for suspensions Ousseynou Ba who has recently recovered from his back injury is suspended for the first leg in Piraeus after being sent off against Arsenal in the Europa League round of 16 second leg in North London.

Prediction

This in theory could be a very straightforward game for Thrylos. They have a better team, a better track record with reaching the Champions League group stages and with fans back in the Karaiskakis on Wednesday night it will make for an intimidating atmosphere for Neftchi. What Pedro Martins men cannot allow for is complacency. 

Yes, they are the favourites and with no away goals it is not as big a worry in theory for home sides to concede. But as Thrylos fans can remember all too well, worse sides have been able to shut up shop and play out 0-0 draws in Piraeus only to take that back to their home ground and take the game to them there. 

Despite never reaching the Champions League group stages, and only reaching the Europa League group stages once in their history this is a side Thrylos cannot afford to underestimate. 

My lineup prediction is a tough one to call. Formation wise and with the personnel available I reckon Martins will set up in a 4-3-3. For the first time in three years, there is a dilemma as to who will start in goal for Olympiakos in a game of football. While the addition of Tomas Vaclik will make him the first choice for the vast majority of the season, I do believe there is a chance we will see Kostas Tzolakis start this game as he has played as the number one throughout most of pre-season, although Martins could call upon the reliable Andreas Kristinsson. For now, I will go with Vaclik to make his debut for Thrylos. 

The centre back pairing is almost a certainty for me, Sokratis and Semedo start. Left-back the only real option is Oleg, with a very unluckily possibility Androutsos plays on the left side rather than at right-back. Despite thoroughly enjoying seeing Androutsos on the right hand side of defence last season I believe Martins will go with Kenny Lala who had himself a rather decent pre-season and looks much sharper than when he first arrived in Piraeus. 

In the midfield three most likely it will be the trio of Yann M’Vila, Mady Camara and Andreas Bouchalakis although Pierre Kunde could also make his debut and first start for the club instead of Boucha. 

On both wings, I imagine it will be Masouras on the left and french veteran Mathieu Valbuena on the right with a possibility of Lazar Randjelovic starting, as admittedly he had an impressive pre-season himself.   

Upfront it is also a tough call as while El Arabi is coming off the back of another fantastic campaign, he did not quite look himself in pre-season and Hassan consistently got onto the score sheet during the teams time in Austria. I will say El Arabi for the start, but I would not be surprised to see that man Hassan popping up with an important goal over these two legs. 

If Martins keeps his players as focused as they have been in previous qualifiers I personally think Erythrolfki will have the upper hand in this first leg and the Greek Champions will run out 3-0 winners.   

Hellas Football 

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