Neftchi Baku vs Olympiakos: Champions League 2nd Qualifying Return Leg Preview

Neftchi Baku vs Olympiakos: 

Champions League 2nd Qualifying Return Leg Preview

By Stephen Kountourou 

With the first half of this tie done and dusted in Piraeus, both clubs can now look ahead to the return leg in Azerbaijan and its capital Baku. For supporters of Olympiakos in particular it was not quite the performance they were expecting as Thrylos, despite claiming a 1-0 victory, seemed to struggle in certain areas of the pitch throughout the game. Supporters returning to the Karaiskakis for the first time in over a year was a huge boost for everyone involved with the Thrylos faithful acting as the 12th man from kick-off to full time just like they did before the outbreak of Covid19. 

But with a slim advantage going into the away trip to Neftchi’s home turf, injuries, covid cases and suspensions throughout the team, can Olympiakos get the job done and qualify for the next round on the UEFA Champions League and take another step towards the promised land of the group stages? This week's preview will hopefully calm the nerves of supporters of the Erythrolefki as I take a look back at the first leg in Piraeus, injuries and suspensions while also making another inaccurate prediction to deduce what could unfold in Bake next Wednesday night. 

Last time in the Piraeus…

Olympiakos began their European odyssey by facing Neftchi in Piraeus in front of a Karaiskakis Stadium with supporters for the first time in 18 months. It was an incredible atmosphere, even without a sold out crowd due to capacity restrictions, and a welcome change to waves of empty seats that Thrylos endured throughout last season's European campaign. News started flying about on social media a couple of hours before the match that El Arabi would not feature as the Moroccan striker had once again tested positive for covid, with Sokratis and Yann M’Vila also coming into contact.

 This meant that all three players were unable to compete in the first leg and will also be unavailable for the return leg in Baku. It was evident that Thrylos sorely missed their more senior players in the team as they started the match rather sluggishly which then in turn allowed Neftchi to create some dangerous early chances for themselves. 

Near the midway point of the first half, Andreas Bouchalakis hobbled off injured with his replacement being 37 years old Mathieu Valbuena coming on as Pedro Martins changed the team’s formation to a more attacking 4-2-3-1. From that point on the French veteran spearheaded all that was positive about Olympiakos during the match going forward and ten minutes later he made his mark on the match. 

After a smart pass from the midfielder found Mady Camara 35 yards out, the Guinean international looped the ball past the keeper with a stunning strike that put Olympiakos ahead. After the goal, Thrylos grew into the match and looked more comfortable in defence and transitioning to attack. Disaster struck minutes before halftime however as goal scorer Camara attempted an audacious overhead kick to keep the ball in play and in doing so kicked a Neftchi player in the face. Camara was sent off reducing Olympiakos to ten men and the team went into the break with the prospect of playing the rest of the match at a disadvantage. 

It was Neftchi that began the second half by pressuring ten men Thrylos. Pape Cisse came on in an attempt from Martin to keep the defence more solid but, despite being ahead, the momentum that had carried Olympiakos after going 1-0 up was all but gone. Just past the hour mark, Oleg was through on the left hand side with only Neftchi player Meet Çelik in front of the Moldovan international. Çelik aimed a high kick towards the ball and instead found the neck of Oleg who fell to the ground with his head at an awkward angle, such was the force of the opposing player's kick. Çelik was also shown a straight red card which brought both teams down to ten men. 

The rest of the match saw moments in equal measure for Thrylos to double their lead and for the Baku side to find an equaliser but with neither side able to properly convert the match ended with a slim 1-0 victory for Olympiakos in Piraeus.

Any injuries and suspensions 

Where do we begin for injuries and suspensions when it comes to Olympiakos going into the 2nd leg. Yann M’Vila and Sokratis are unlikely to feature next week due to the former testing positive for covid19 and the latter two players coming into contact. Andreas Bouchalakis is also a doubt for the away tie in Baku after being subbed off early in the first half in Piraeus. Mady Camara will miss this tie through suspension after his red card. The big news however is that El Arabi has flown with the team to Baku and is likely to play the 2nd leg of this tie. 

Prediction 

Pedro Martins' job has become even harder in the build-up to this match. With 5 first team players out injured the Portuguese tactician will have to focus even more on not only how he sets up his team but how he manages the game as they travel to Baku. I could certainly see Martins start the team in a different formation to last matches 4-3-3. Due to the lack of midfielders at his disposal, I could see a 4-2-3-1 with Tzolakis keeping his place in goal after a very solid performance. 

There is another opinion now for Martins in defence as Ba is back from his suspension that carried over from last season, although I actually think Markovic will keep his place in the starting lineup as he too produced a very impressive performance on Wednesday. Semedo, despite looking a bit lacklustre at times, will also maintain his place in the lineup. Oleg Reabciuk will be a guarantee at left back for me, but the real question of who will start in defence will be at right back. As brilliant as Thanasis Androutsos was last season at right back, he did look a bit out of sorts in this match and was constantly caught out of position and leaving his team vulnerable on the counter. Kenny Lala is a much safer opinion if Martins wants a more balanced full back who can both attack and defend and I believe that he will go with the Frenchman. 

The midfield two is almost a formality at this point. With all of Olympiakos starting players out injured or suspended in that position, it’ll be up to Pierre Kunde and Vasilis Sourlis to step up to the plate in this fixture. Although there could be an outside shout for Androutsos to return to the midfield if called upon. Attacking Midfield will undoubtedly be French veteran Mathieu Valbuena. Even at the age of 37, he changed the game when he was subbed on midway through the first half in Piraeus and Thrylos need him more than ever to spearhead everything creative going forward. 

On the wings, it’s a bit of a toss-up. I do not doubt that Marouras will retain his place, but question marks have to be put on the right wing and who will be given the nod. Lazar Randjelovic will most likely be chosen to start for a second consecutive game, but after failing to impact the first match in Greece, there could be an opportunity for either Marios Vrousai or Nikola Cumic to be handed their chance on the European stage. 

Upfront, El Arabi will most likely take the starting forward role from Hassan.

Of course, it was important to get the win in Piraeus as that would have been a huge boost for the Greek champions even if it was not the scoreline or score margin that supporters may have wanted to take to the second leg. I do believe there was an air of both the team and supporters, myself included, who underestimated Neftchi Baku. Despite lacking the quality in comparison to their Greek opponents, they proved they had a game plan that worked when they carved Olympiakos open on the counter attack but were unable to convert their chances. Thrylos cannot go to Baku and defend their slim lead. That will only entice a Neftchi side that will already be chasing the game for an equaliser to bring the tie level Not to mention the added possibility of more covid cases in the squad this is going to be a hugely challenging match for Thrylos and I will predict that it will be a 0-0 draw but Olympiakos scrape through to the 3rd qualifying round. 

Hellas Football 

Follow @stevekountourou